Patrick Collison

The most lucrative business opportunities rarely hide behind complex proprietary algorithms. Instead, they often sit in plain sight, buried within the dry tables of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics or the historical population charts of Kyoto. Steph Smith, a researcher known for identifying "gold mine" trends, argues that the most significant shifts are those so inevitable they are practically mathematical certainties. From the physical demands of an aging global population to the surprising metabolic cost of a romantic breakup, these data points reveal where consumer spending is migrating long before the market fully adjusts. Elderly care markets prepare for a 2.5 billion person surge While the tech world obsesses over artificial intelligence, a more tangible demographic shift is underway. The world's elderly population—those 65 and older—is projected to climb from under 1 billion today to over 2.5 billion. Steph Smith highlights that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts nursing will be the fastest-growing occupation through 2030, adding 275,000 jobs. This "Silver Tsunami" is not a future possibility but a current reality in Japan, where nursing homes have increased by 50% in a single decade. The financial profile of this sector is startling. In the United States, the median price of assisted living has hit $54,000 per year, outstripping inflation by 31%. Despite the operational headaches of managing physical facilities, four out of five facilities are run as for-profit entities, with half of all operators clearing annual returns of 20% or more. There is a massive market gap for "premium" assisted living. While current options are often viewed with dread by families, a high-end, reliable alternative could command significantly more than the current $30,000 monthly fees seen at the top of the market. Hidden economies of air quality and the Dyson mask Air quality is quietly becoming a leading risk factor for global mortality, yet it remains largely invisible to the average consumer. Patrick Collison of Stripe has documented that half the world's population is exposed to PM 2.5 levels five times higher than recommended. The consequences extend beyond health; poor air quality correlates with lower GDP, worse stock market returns, and even increased error rates among professional chess players. This environmental crisis is birthing a new category of "survivalist luxury." Dyson recently released a $700 air-purifying headphone mask that, while mocked by some, signals a shift toward personal filtration. Data from Jungle Scout suggests that furnace air filters and monitors are already generating over $40 million in monthly sales on Amazon. The opportunity here lies in marketing: just as water filters became a household staple through visual demonstrations of sediment and lead, air quality needs a "marketer's touch" to make the invisible threat of CO2 and particulate matter feel urgent enough to drive mass-market adoption. Niche sports and the rise of the suburban triathlon Fitness trends are moving away from the traditional gym toward more specific, equipment-heavy hobbies. While Pickleball remains the fastest-growing sport in America, niche activities like Alpine Touring and Winter Fat Biking—mountain bikes with oversized tires for snow or sand—are seeing explosive growth. This shift suggests a desire for fitness that feels like an adventure or a social event rather than a chore. Shaan Puri suggests that the next "Tough Mudder" might not be a test of extreme athleticism, but rather a "Suburban Triathlon" designed for the average, out-of-shape professional. By branding a 0.5-mile walk, a two-beer pitstop, and nine holes of golf as an official event, organizers could tap into the massive demographic of people who want the community and branding of an endurance race without the grueling physical toll. It is a business built on identity and humor rather than raw performance. Breakup spending and the $15,000 revenge economy The end of a relationship is often the start of a major spending cycle. Data suggests the average person spends approximately $15,000 following a significant breakup. This "breakup economy" encompasses everything from moving expenses to "revenge body" fitness programs and therapeutic travel. For creators with established distribution, this is a viral product gold mine. Concepts like "Breakup Cakes," divorce party planning, or a "Bad Juju" detox kit—including juice cleanses and healing crystals—could easily generate $2 million to $10 million in annual revenue with purely organic marketing. There is even room for more satirical services, such as a "breakup box" where individuals send their ex-partner’s leftover belongings to a company that films them being destroyed in an epic fashion. It is an industry built on the human need for closure and the ritualistic purging of the past. Nature as a design blueprint through biomimicry Some of the most advanced technological solutions are being found by looking backward at millions of years of evolution. Ask Nature is a resource that catalogs biological strategies for human application, such as search algorithms inspired by the foraging patterns of ants or water-resistant coatings modeled after African darter feathers. Steph Smith highlights how these natural hooks can be used for both product development and storytelling. A clothing brand that uses the thermal properties of camel fur to keep wearers cool in the sun and warm at night has a built-in marketing narrative. Evolution has already done the R&D; the business opportunity lies in bridging the gap between biological efficiency and consumer products. Whether it is shoes that change color based on health metrics or wet suits that mimic otter fur, nature provides a "Lindyness" that synthetic designs often lack.