Private Credit

The Era of the Known Unknown We are staring down the barrel of the most volatile investment landscape in recent memory. It is a period defined not by the data points we can track, but by the massive, open-ended questions that refuse to be answered. From the escalating tensions in Iran to the existential threat AI poses to traditional labor, the forces at play are not just incremental; they are structural. For the visionary entrepreneur, this isn't just noise—it is a fundamental rewriting of the rules of growth and risk. Geopolitics as an Insider Trading Scheme Scott Galloway pulls no punches when discussing the current administration’s impact on global stability. He argues that Donald Trump has effectively weaponized geopolitical uncertainty. By oscillating between aggressive rhetoric and promises of peace regarding Iran, the President creates artificial volatility. This isn't just bad diplomacy; it's a market-moving lever. We see S&P 500 futures plummet and oil prices surge based on a single late-night speech. When leadership lacks a predictable framework or strategy, the job of the investor—building a thesis on the future—becomes nearly impossible. We are essentially being whipsawed by "word salad" and erratic military posturing. The Looming $2 Trillion Credit Crunch While the headlines focus on war and silicon, a silent threat is brewing in private credit. Now a $2 trillion industry, private credit has become the lifeblood for many software firms and mid-sized enterprises. However, the cracks are beginning to show. If this were any other year, the potential for a massive credit meltdown would be the only story in town. The industry has issued a staggering volume of bad loans, and with interest rate cuts now looking less likely, we are facing a legitimate credit crunch that could paralyse the tech ecosystem. AI and the Destruction of Software Value AI is no longer a speculative bubble; it’s a force that is actively erasing market value. When a single viral blog post can wipe out $300 billion in market capitalization overnight, it signals a deep-seated fear among investors. The core question remains: will AI enhance the labor market or completely eviscerate the software industry as we know it? In this environment, conviction is a rare commodity. You find the problem, you build the solution, but right now, the market is too busy bracing for impact to figure out what that solution is worth.