Rick Rieder

The $5,000 Milestone: Symptoms of Global Anxiety Gold has breached the historic $5,000 per troy ounce threshold, marking a staggering 50% climb over the past six months and an 80% surge within the last year. This is not merely a technical breakout; it is a profound signal of systemic distrust. Investors are no longer just hedging against inflation—they are bracing for institutional collapse. The current surge reflects a cocktail of existential fears: an exploding US fiscal deficit under the Donald Trump administration, escalating geopolitical tensions spanning from Greenland to Venezuela, and domestic volatility characterized by armed federal intervention in American cities. Traditional economic indicators fail to justify this price level. While gold bugs often cite currency debasement, the bond market remains surprisingly calm, with inflation expectations holding steady. This disconnect suggests that gold is currently behaving less like a financial asset and more like a "meme stock" for the doomsday-inclined. When investors stop asking about yields and start asking about survival, the capital flight into hard assets accelerates, creating a feedback loop that transcends fundamental valuation. The TACO Strategy: Volatility as Policy The market’s reaction to recent trade threats—specifically Donald Trump's "Greenland TACO" (Threaten, Act, Collect, Oppose)—reveals a growing desensitization to executive volatility. After threatening Canada with 100% tariffs and rattling Europe over Greenland, the administration’s subsequent reversals have established a predictable pattern of "saber rattling" followed by strategic retreats. This "taco" maneuver—a term coined by Robert Armstrong—is increasingly seen as an expression of political rage rather than a coherent trade policy. For investors, the challenge lies in distinguishing between a Truth Social post and a legitimate policy proposal. While the initial shock of 100% tariffs on a major trading partner like Canada would typically send markets into a tailspin, the S&P 500 and the US dollar have shown remarkable resilience. The market has effectively developed an immunity to the noise, recognizing that an outright trade embargo on the Canadian economy would cause enough domestic pain to force an eventual administration fold. However, this skepticism is a dangerous game; as a second-term president reaches lame-duck status, risk appetite often becomes more extreme, making the line between rhetoric and reality increasingly blurry. The BlackRock Influence: A New Fed Frontrunner The race for the next Federal Reserve Chair has shifted dramatically with the emergence of Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive and one of the world’s most influential bond traders. Rieder’s ascent in prediction markets to a 50% probability follows direct consultations at the Oval Office. Unlike traditional academic appointees, Rieder brings a market-first perspective, famously suggesting that high interest rates may actually be pro-inflationary in sectors like housing by restricting supply. Donald Trump's interest in Rieder likely stems from Rieder's public openness to rate cuts and his heterodox view that the Fed should perhaps assist the U.S. Department of the Treasury in managing interest costs. This represents a potential departure from the Fed’s traditional independence. While Rieder is a seasoned professional, the primary criterion for this administration has historically been loyalty over competence. The central question for the global economy is whether a Fed led by a market veteran would remain an independent arbiter or become an instrument of fiscal policy. TikTok’s American Rebirth After years of legislative stalemate, the TikTok saga has concluded with a forced divestiture that fundamentally restructures the platform’s US operations. ByteDance will retain only a 20% stake, while a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake, and the Abu Dhabi-based MGX takes control. This deal aims to sever the algorithmic cord between Beijing and American users, but technical skepticism remains high. Oracle will manage the technical administration, effectively attempting to "retrain" the algorithm on US customer data to eliminate potential Chinese government manipulation. However, the involvement of MGX introduces new geopolitical layers, as the United Arab Emirates maintains complex tech relationships with both the US and China. From a product standpoint, the risk is significant: TikTok's dominance was built on an opaque but hyper-efficient recommendation engine. By tampering with the "black box" to satisfy national security requirements, the new owners risk degrading the user experience that made the app a global phenomenon. For competitors like Meta, any friction in TikTok’s transition is a strategic gift. Beyond the Gold Bubble While the herd rushes toward gold, rational analysis demands we ask: Why specifically gold? If the thesis is a hedge against US decline, the market offers a myriad of alternatives that possess greater intrinsic utility. Copper, Lithium, and Aluminum are essential to the modern economy in ways gold is not. Furthermore, for those seeking a sanctuary from the US dollar, the equity markets of Switzerland, Norway, and Denmark offer exposure to nations with significantly lower debt-to-GDP ratios. Gold’s current valuation is driven by a narrative—a story of a safe haven that everyone believes in simply because everyone else believes in it. This is the hallmark of a bubble. Investors must differentiate between reasonable anxiety and irrational conclusions. If the global order is truly shifting, a shiny metal with limited industrial use may not be the panacea the markets currently believe it to be. The most important question for any investor in this climate isn't "what to buy," but "why."