Jonathan D. Cohen

The frictionless descent into a $150 billion habit In 2018, the Supreme Court dismantled the federal prohibition on sports betting, effectively handing the keys to a dormant economic engine over to individual states. Since that pivot, 39 states have legalized the practice, fueling a 30x explosion in total wagers. Jonathan D. Cohen, a leading analyst at the American Institute for Boys and Men, notes that the market hit roughly $148 billion in 2024. This isn't the localized, ring-fenced gambling of the past—the type confined to Las Vegas or specific tribal lands. Instead, 94% of these bets happen on mobile devices, transforming a former destination activity into a constant, frictionless companion. State governments embraced this shift under the siren song of tax-free revenue. Lobbyists from gambling conglomerates sold a vision of windfall profits that would fund public services without raising taxes. However, the fiscal reality is far more modest. Only Montana derives more than 1% of its tax revenue from sports betting; for most other states, it remains a statistical rounding error. The true cost, however, isn't measured in state ledgers but in the financial and social stability of the bettors themselves. The neurological price of frictionless access Unlike chemical dependencies such as heroin or alcohol, gambling is a behavioral addiction that rewires the brain’s dopamine pathways through external stimuli. It is currently the only behavioral disorder formally codified as an addiction in diagnostic manuals. The danger lies in the lack of "friction"—the physical or temporal barriers that once slowed the rate of play. Today, a user can lose a month's mortgage payment on obscure international sports from their smartphone in seconds. The human cost is stark. Bankruptcy rates in states that legalized online sports betting have surged by roughly 30%. This financial volatility is accompanied by a rise in credit card delinquencies, auto loan defaults, and a significant reduction in household savings, particularly among lower-income families. Most alarming is the connection to self-harm; gambling carries the highest suicide rate of any addiction because the speed at which one can fall into irreparable debt far outpaces the speed of intervention. Why young men are the primary targets Data indicates a massive demographic skew: half of men aged 18 to 49 now hold a sports betting account. The American Institute for Boys and Men highlights that six out of seven gambling addicts are male. This vulnerability stems from a combination of biological predispositions—such as a later-developing prefrontal cortex responsible for impulse control—and a cultural desire to prove expertise in sports. Economic nihilism also plays a role. Young men who feel locked out of the housing market or stable high-earning careers may view gambling not as entertainment, but as a high-risk vehicle for wealth acquisition. This "financial nihilism" leads them to bet whatever discretionary income they have in a desperate attempt to achieve a financial baseline that feels otherwise unattainable. The industry capitalizes on this with sophisticated user interfaces designed to maximize engagement and minimize the perception of loss. Prediction markets as a regulatory backdoor While platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings face state-by-state scrutiny, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are emerging as a regulatory bypass. These platforms often market themselves as information-aggregation tools for events like elections or geopolitical shifts. However, a significant portion of their volume remains tied to sports. Because these platforms often operate under different age-gating rules—sometimes allowing 18-year-olds where sportsbooks require a minimum age of 21—they serve as an entry point for younger demographics. The house still acts as a liquidity provider, and the ability to create complex "parlays" on non-sporting events mirrors the addictive structures of traditional gambling. This creates a landscape where the distinction between "investing" and "betting" becomes dangerously blurred for the uninitiated. Lessons from the United Kingdom’s regulatory rethink The United States is currently following a trajectory blazed by the United Kingdom, which legalized online gambling in 2005. The British experience has been one of mounting social crisis, leading to a recent, aggressive rollback of industry freedoms. The UK is now implementing "whistle-to-whistle" advertising bans to prevent gambling commercials during live matches and removing betting logos from Premier League jerseys. Flutter, the parent company of FanDuel, has even begun self-regulating in the UK by imposing hard loss limits on bettors under 25. This type of systemic friction—moving from an "opt-in" to an "opt-out" safety model—is what experts argue is missing from the American landscape. Without mandates that force platforms to stop serving customers who show clear signs of distress, the industry remains incentivized to squeeze the maximum lifetime value out of every user. Reframing the regulatory mandate A critical shift is needed in how we oversee these markets. Currently, many state regulatory bodies, such as the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Agency, have mandates to maximize tax revenue for the state. This creates an inherent conflict of interest: the state becomes a business partner with the gambling industry, benefiting from the very losses that destabilize its citizens. Transitioning to a public health framework would involve changing these mandates to prioritize citizen well-being over tax receipts. This could include national self-exclusion registries, where a user who blocks themselves on one app is automatically barred from all others. It also necessitates education; several states, including Virginia, are beginning to integrate gambling literacy into high school curricula. As long as the profit motive for states remains tied to the volume of wagers, the cycle of financial precarity will only accelerate.