USAID

Market Optimism and the Compression of Tech Multiples The financial landscape currently presents a striking paradox. While the specter of a broader conflict involving Iran hangs over the Strait of Hormuz, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have surged, driven by a desperate hope for a ceasefire. This optimism isn't just sentiment; it's rooted in a massive repricing of risk. John Mowrey of NFJ Investment Group points out that technology stocks are trading at their lowest multiples since 2022. We are seeing a rare moment where earnings growth is accelerating while valuations are being squeezed by exogenous shocks. The volatility we’re witnessing isn't just about bombs and oil barrels. It’s about "shock inflation"—a sudden, violent spike that differs from standard hot inflation. This forces the Federal Reserve into a corner, making rate cuts less likely even as private credit markets begin to show cracks. Investors are operating with zero conviction, reacting to every blog post or algorithm update with manic buying or selling. This is the hallmark of an unanchored market searching for a bottom while valuations in sectors like energy and financials remain historically attractive. The $852 Billion AI Juggernaut If you want to talk about disruption, look at OpenAI. The company just closed a $122 billion funding round, catapulting its valuation to $852 billion. This isn't just a startup anymore; it’s the 13th most valuable entity on the planet, sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with SpaceX. Sam Altman has cemented his status as the greatest fundraiser in history, securing capital from Microsoft, Nvidia, and SoftBank at a scale that makes Uber's early days look like a lemonade stand. But here’s the rub: despite generating $2 billion in revenue per month, OpenAI is still burning cash and remains unprofitable. The valuation is a bet on a "step function shift" in productivity. Alex Heath notes that the company’s internal developments, like the model codenamed Spud, aim to generalize AI's coding success to all forms of knowledge work within the next year. We are looking at a potential trillion-dollar IPO, yet the governance is a mess and the path to quarterly public reporting will be a gauntlet of volatility. The Break Now Fix Later Economic Rubric There is a disturbing pattern emerging in current economic policy, a strategy I call BNFL—Break Now, Fix Later. The recent judicial halt on Donald Trump’s $400 million White House ballroom project is the perfect metaphor. The East Wing was demolished without approval, and now it sits in ruins with no plan for replacement. This isn't an isolated incident; it’s a repeatable business model for governance. Look at the $25 billion campaign in Iran. The goal was regime change, but the result is a devastated region with the same power structure intact, only now fueled by personal vendettas against the United States. The same logic applied to the sweeping global tariffs that increased inflation and were ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court. The administration breaks a system, promises a beautiful replacement, and then moves on to the next disruption when the building gets too hard. It’s the ultimate failure of scalability: dismantling generations of work without the wherewithal to rebuild. Growth Hacking the Federal Deficit The creation of DOGE followed the same BNFL trajectory. The agency fired 300,000 workers and gutted USAID, only to be quietly dissolved while the national deficit ballooned by another $4 trillion. This is the antithesis of the efficiency it preached. True disruption requires a better solution, not just a louder explosion. As we look toward the midterms, the market is betting that the administration will prioritize a strong equity market over continued conflict, but history suggests that once the demolition begins, the fixing part usually never comes. We are left with nothing but the ruins of the old systems and the empty promises of the new ones.