Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

The January Decision: Prudence Over Political Expediency The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has chosen to hold interest rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, signaling a period of watchful waiting that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term political wins. While the Trump administration has signaled a desire for aggressive cuts, Jerome Powell and the majority of the committee are focused on the data. Policy is currently in a neutral zone—it is neither slamming the brakes on growth nor flooring the accelerator. After 75 basis points of cuts in the previous cycle, the Federal Reserve is rightly pausing to assess the cumulative impact of these moves. Prudence is the watchword here. Two dissenting members, Steven Moran and Christopher Waller, reportedly favored a different path, highlighting the internal friction that often precedes a major shift in economic cycles. However, the consensus remains that the job is not yet finished. Inflation has not been "killed," regardless of political rhetoric. We are seeing a complex interplay where fiscal expansion and tariff policies are creating cross-currents that make early victory laps dangerous for the credibility of the institution. The Tariff Trap and Sticky Inflation One of the most critical elements of this meeting was the frank discussion regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are not inflationary, the economic reality is more nuanced. To date, many importing companies have absorbed the cost of these taxes within their own margins to avoid losing market share. This has temporarily shielded the consumer, but those margins are not infinite. Companies have communicated clearly to the Federal Reserve that they intend to pass these costs on to the general consumption basket soon. We are currently observing a divergence: services inflation is cooling, which is a positive sign for the structural health of the economy, but goods inflation is being artificially propped up by trade policy. If the Federal Reserve looks through these price increases as "one-off shocks," they risk letting inflation expectations become unanchored. Once the public believes that 3% or 4% is the new normal, it becomes exponentially harder to bring it back to the 2% target. The Fed is meticulously tracking this tariff impact item-by-item to determine if the price spikes are transitory or structural. Labor Market Dynamics: The Myth of the Collapse There has been significant noise regarding a weakening US jobs market, but the data requires a sophisticated lens. Recent Non-farm Payrolls prints of 56,000 and 50,000 might look alarming on the surface, but they must be viewed alongside a slowing labor supply. Reduced immigration and shifting participation rates mean the economy needs fewer new jobs per month to maintain equilibrium. We are not seeing a surge in unemployment or mass layoffs; instead, we are seeing a stabilization after a period of extreme overheating. Jerome Powell pointed out that when the labor market and GDP growth send conflicting signals, the Fed tends to trust the labor data, despite recent distortions caused by a temporary federal government shutdown. The current "jobless recovery" is a peculiar phenomenon driven by high productivity—rising between 2% and 5%—partially fueled by Artificial Intelligence infrastructure investments. For investors, this suggests that corporate profitability can remain resilient even if hiring remains tepid. The Sovereignty of the Central Bank The most dramatic portion of this cycle involves the Department of Justice subpoenas issued to the Federal Reserve regarding building renovation budgets. Jerome Powell has been remarkably transparent in labeling these as a "pretext." This is a blatant attempt to exert political pressure on an independent body because interest rates were not cut to the White House's satisfaction. This is not just a bureaucratic spat; it is a fundamental challenge to the institutional arrangement that prevents monetary policy from being used for election-cycle politics. History is littered with examples of what happens when central bank independence is compromised. When a populist leader forces low rates during periods of high inflation, the result is often a temporary sugar high followed by a catastrophic economic crash. We need only look at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to see the consequences of unconventional political interference. Jerome Powell's refusal to yield to intimidation is essential for maintaining the US Dollar's status as the world’s reserve currency and the credibility of US debt markets. Investment Strategy in a Changing Landscape For wealth management, the current environment demands a move away from monolithic thinking. We are seeing a significant rotation within the markets. While the "Magnificent 7" dominated for years, the last few months have shown Small Cap Value stocks outperforming large-cap growth. This suggests that the market is beginning to price in a broader recovery and a normalization of interest rates. However, caution is required with US Treasuries. The combination of high fiscal deficits and political attacks on the Fed makes the long end of the bond market less attractive for those seeking pure safety. Investors should maintain their core allocations but consider tilting toward value and small-cap sectors that have been neglected. Betting against US equities has historically been a losing trade, but diversifying into international markets—such as Peru which has seen surprising strength—can provide a necessary buffer. The base case remains that a rate hike is unlikely, but the first cut may not arrive until mid-2026, once the Federal Reserve is certain that the tariff-induced inflation has peaked and begun to recede. Conclusion: Navigating the Soft Landing The Federal Reserve has managed the elusive "soft landing" better than most anticipated, but the final descent is the most dangerous part. By refusing to declare victory prematurely and standing firm against political interference, Jerome Powell is protecting the structural integrity of the American economy. For those of us focused on long-term wealth, this institutional resilience is far more valuable than a hasty 25-basis-point cut. We must remain data-dependent in our own portfolios, just as the Fed is in its policy, ensuring that our growth is built on a foundation of reality rather than political pressure.