Mexico

The looming shadow of demographic bankruptcy We often view history through the lens of political movements or technological breakthroughs, but Peter Zeihan argues that the most potent force shaping our future is the simple act of birth. The current global structure is not merely shifting; it is facing a fundamental inversion that humanity has never before navigated. For decades, the China growth story dominated the narrative of the 21st century. Yet, Zeihan suggests we are witnessing the end of China as a unified entity. The CCP's decision to move toward a white-collar economy following Tiananmen Square was a strategic attempt to control the population, but it inadvertently accelerated a demographic collapse that may be irreversible. The math is brutal and unforgiving. When a society stops having children, it doesn't just age; it loses its capacity to consume and, eventually, its capacity to produce. China is now in a position where it likely has more people over the age of 54 than under. This is not a challenge that can be solved with policy tweaks or financial stimulus. It is a biological dead end. Zeihan posits that the statisticians in Shanghai have been overcounting their population by anywhere from 100 million to 300 million people, largely due to local governments chasing subsidies. If these projections hold, the world's most populous nation is already an aged society masquerading as a rising power. Why AI is not a demographic lifesaver A common counter-argument to demographic decline is the rise of Artificial Intelligence. There is a hope that silicon can replace the missing carbon—that robots will fill the factories and algorithms will manage the logistics. Zeihan dismisses this as a white-collar fantasy. While AI may make certain high-level tasks more efficient, it cannot solve the core problem of consumption. Robots do not buy cars, they do not pay for healthcare for the elderly, and they certainly do not raise the next generation of taxpayers. The current labor shortage in the United States and Europe is primarily blue-collar—electricians, welders, and builders—not coders or paralegals. AI is currently optimized to replace the very people who write the articles about it, not the people who maintain the physical infrastructure of civilization. Furthermore, the Nvidia valuation reflects a bubble fueled by the theft-prone nature of software. If the underlying code for ChatGPT can fit on a thumb drive, the proprietary advantage is far more fragile than the market suggests. For China, which is running out of people under the age of 50, AI offers no path to domestic demand. The mirage of the green energy transition The push for Electric Vehicles and renewable energy is often framed as a moral and environmental necessity, but Zeihan grounds the discussion in physical chemistry and geography. The reality of the green transition is that it is entirely dependent on the very globalization that is currently unraveling. To reach the Joe Biden administration’s goals for EV adoption, the United States would need to secure every scrap of lithium, copper, and graphite on the planet, leaving none for any other nation. Moreover, the environmental benefit of EVs is highly localized. In many regions, charging an Electric Vehicle simply means burning coal at a distance. Without a massive overhaul of the electrical grid—specifically the high-voltage transmission lines that haven't been expanded in decades—the dream of a carbon-free transport system remains out of reach. Zeihan notes that Tesla and Elon Musk have survived on subsidies that are not economically viable without government intervention. If those subsidies vanish, the market for EVs could drop to zero overnight. New warfare and the revolution of the drone The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a laboratory for the second revolution in military affairs. We have moved past the era of predictable, industrialized warfare into a period of rapid, digital evolution. Every three months, the rules of the battlefield change. Drones that were once simple scouts are now autonomous interceptors. The Ukraine war is proving that cheap semiconductors and desperate innovation can neutralize the billion-dollar platforms of the previous century. This shift has terrifying implications for global security. When the cost of kinetic aggression drops, the barrier to entry for conflict disappears. However, it also highlights the desperation of Russia. By attempting to reunite Eurasia under a single power, Vladimir Putin is fighting a demographic clock that is ticking even faster than China's. The United States and its allies are watching this sandbox with intense scrutiny, learning how to defend against a new type of threat that doesn't rely on the traditional naval or air dominance of the 20th century. The rise of unexpected powers As the old giants stumble, new powers are emerging from the periphery. Zeihan points to Mexico as the quiet success story of the next era. While often viewed through the lens of border politics, Mexico has become a massive industrial power, perfectly positioned to benefit from the reshoring of American manufacturing. Its proximity to the world's largest consumer base and its increasingly skilled STEM workforce make it a more relevant partner than Germany or France in the coming decades. Similarly, Vietnam and Japan are recalibrating their roles. Japan, despite its aging population, has become a naval superpower once again, boasting carriers that make it the second most powerful navy in the world. The fragility of these alliances, particularly under the erratic shifts of Donald Trump's foreign policy, creates a world of high stakes and low predictability. In this landscape, resilience is found not in grand global treaties, but in intentional, localized partnerships and the recognition of inherent geographical strengths.